Climate downscaling for estimating glacier mass balances in northwestern North America: Validation with a USGS benchmark glacier

An atmosphere/glacier modeling system is described for estimating the mass balances of glaciers in both current and future climate in order to estimate their probable future contributions to rising sea level. Dynamically downscaled output from a regional atmospheric model, driven by global atmospheric reanalysis, is used to force a precipitation-temperature-area-altitude (PTAA) glacier mass balance model with daily maximum and minimum temperatures and precipitation. The modeling system is verified by hindcasting the mass balances of Gulkana Glacier, a U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) benchmark glacier in the Alaska Range, U.S.A., during a ten-year period from October 1994 to September 2004. The mass balances simulated with the atmosphere/glacier modeling system are comparable to the USGS measurements, and are also in good agreement with the meteorological station observation-forced PTAA simulations. The results suggest this is a promising approach for realistic estimation of the future mass balances of the glaciers of northwestern North America. Copyright 2007 by the American Geophysical Union.