Evaluating evolutionary changes in state TANF policies

Over the past decade narrowly focused studies have evaluated the effectiveness of state-level welfare policies. In general, they evaluate reforms within a particular state, focus on a small number of outcome variables (usually caseload levels) and/or use a very narrowly defined time period. This narrow and partial analysis is perplexing, from an institutional perspective, as Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) forces states into a zero-sum funding game, where shares depend on differential relative success in achieving policy objectives metrics. This institutional structure incentivizes states to mimic and improve upon more successful counterparts to recapture a larger share of TANF block grants. Given this dynamic institutional structure, an evolutionary evaluation of state TANF programmes is warranted. This article uses cluster analysis to explore evolutionary changes in state TANF policies (as characterized by a comprehensive set of outcome variables) immediately following the imposition of TANF (1997-2005). We identify or benchmark clusters of 'successful' and 'less successful' TANF programmes. The results allow us to track which states in which year fall into the 'successful' and 'less successful' clusters over the 9-year period. The results support the notion that initially unsuccessful states mimic other successful state programmes over time. © 2012 Copyright Taylor and Francis Group, LLC.